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<external-reference : https://github.com/GeoscienceAustralia/tcrm/blob/master/README.rst>;

The Tropical Cyclone Risk Model is a computational tool developed by Geoscience Australia for estimating the wind hazard from tropical cyclones.

Due to the relatively short record of quality-controlled, consistent tropical cyclone observations, it is difficult to estimate average recurrence interval wind speeds ue to tropical cyclones. To overcome the restriction of observed data, TCRM uses a stochastic model to generate thousands of years of events that are statistically similar to the historical record. To translate these events to estimated wind speeds, TCRM applies a parametric windfield and boundary layer model to each event, Finally an extreme value distribution is fitted to the aggregated windfields at each grid point in the model domain to provide ARI wind speed estimates.


Code base



We have put it in puppet - the code has been modified to support ancient version of python (2.6) and we are now in a position to offer it across our cloud provders.


Running the Template

We have extended the example here: https://github.com/GeoscienceAustralia/tcrm/blob/master/example/port_hedland.ini, within our virtual lab. A tutorial is available that describes how to run the simulation in VHIRL.

The API offers customisation of

Things the UI should/can change
  • NumSimulations=1000 #int
  • Resolution=0.05 # range 0.02 -> 0.5
  • YearsPerSimulation=1
The Portal will generate unique seeds for the simulation, making the LAB deliver slightly different results deliberatly, UNLESS you are reproducing another persons work.

This is achieved by targeting the following paramaters: (in a range of 1-1*10^7)
  • SeasonSeed=403943
  • TrackSeed=89333


Currently the template produces 2 classes of outputs:
  • CSV
    • Track files - if you draw them all - it looks like spaghetti!
    • Common visualisations from this would be the "Central Pressure" as a color intensity mesh - This is not done by the portal.
  • NetCDF
    1. WindFieldFile - gridded windspeed (Max intensity at grid points over simulation) - same number as n# Tracks.
    2. Return Periods - Risk maps. Plots of these are also created.

Science Advisor

Craig Authur - Craig.Arthur@ga.gov.au, is our primary science and code advisor. However - usability issues with the portal should be addressed back to Ryan.Fraser@csiro.au

-- TerryRankine - 14 Aug 2014
Topic revision: r2 - 15 Aug 2014, GeoffreySquire

Current license: All material on this collaboration platform is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence (CC BY 3.0).